[보도] Aircraft carrier competition looms over Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific countries are racing to expand their aircraft carrier fleets in order to adapt to the changing geopolitical situation in the region.

Experts estimate that about 18 aircraft carriers will be operating in the region during the next decade, as rivals including the United States, China, Japan and Russia are engaged in heated competition over superiority on the high seas.

Security realignment

"Asia-Pacific powers such as the United States, China, Japan, Russia and India have entered an era of aircraft carrier competition. This silent war will be further fueled by the ongoing and tumultuous realignment of the regional security order," said Lee Choon-kun, a security expert and vice president of the Seoul-based think tank, the Center for Free Enterprise.

China is building an aircraft carrier which it hopes to commission by 2009. Japan owns five light carriers, and plans to build four more units by 2015. Russia aims to operate six aircraft carriers in the next two decades.

Lee explained that future competition will center on the emerging contest between the U.S.-Japan and Russia-China alliances.

The United States is currently strengthening its ties with Japan so as to counter China's rise in Asia and to isolate Russia in Europe.

In Asia, the U.S. strategy is focused on encircling China by forming alliances with China's neighbors, in accord with a new containment policy. Washington is deploying troops in Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, west of China. It is also seeking to enhance its military cooperation with India, Vietnam and Mongolia, experts say.

In response, Russia and China have recently enhanced their military ties, as a way of checking the U.S. strategy. The two countries organized the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Central Asian nations as a counter alliance to the U.S.-led alliance, and are seeking to offer SCO membership to other nations which oppose U.S. global leadership - for example, Iran.

Experts note that the East China Sea will be a geopolitical flash point because the area is an axis for sea lanes from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific Ocean, and has abundant natural gas, oil, and other resources.

"There is an emerging trend whereby the locus of regional conflicts is moving to maritime areas, from land-based ones. The possibility is increasing that countries in such regions will be engaged in armed conflicts," said Lee Sang-hyun, director of Security Studies at the Sejong Institute, a civilian think tank.

Aircraft carrier race

Experts predict that aircraft carriers and submarines will be key assets to maritime power. The carriers will help countries secure strategic advantages in naval operations because the vessels allow a naval force to project air power at great distances, without depending on land bases.

China is reportedly pushing ahead with the construction of a 93,000-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that is scheduled to be operational by 2020. The Chinese government officially denies the project.

Reports indicate that the country has already finished the design of its first aircraft carrier, and has built a huge shipyard in Shanghai which can accommodate a 30,000-ton-class vessel. The facility is in the process of developing the engine, deck planes, and other parts and equipment.

Some reports also suggest that the Beijing government has already chosen the defense manufacturers who will produce the parts and subsystems for the carriers, and that the goal is to build three such ships by 2016.

The vessels, along with strategic nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear missiles, will be a counterforce to U.S. naval dominance in the region, experts say.

China also is pushing for a sales contract estimated at $2.5 billion to purchase 50 Sukhoi-33 fighter jets from Russia. These planes will serve as carrier-borne aircraft.

The United States, which is the world's largest naval power, will increase its own number of aircraft carriers in an attempt to check the rapid rise of China.

According to the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review report, the United States is supposed to deploy at least six out of 11 such carriers in the Pacific Ocean. The plan calls for two units now in the Atlantic Ocean to be redeployed to the Pacific. The U.S. Navy currently operates four aircraft carriers in the Pacific, in Guam, Hawaii, and San Diego.

Japan, which is believed to have the second strongest naval power in the western Pacific, has recently commissioned a large-deck frigate called the 16DDH. This is a rotary-wing aircraft carrier that can accommodate 11 helicopters on deck. The ship can also carry vertical take-off and landing craft such as F-35Bs, which the United States has suggested it plans to sell to Japan.

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces already possess large-deck landing ships which experts categorize as quasi-aircraft carriers. The Tokyo government plans to build two 40,000-ton-class aircraft carriers before 2015. The vessels will be able to load E-2C airborne early-warning aircraft, as well as vertical take-off, landing craft, and short-range fighter planes.

Russia, the Cold War rival of the United States, is now taking steps to restore its former standing by using its oil wealth. Moscow currently operates only one aircraft carrier, but plans to build a total of six 50,000-ton-class units within two decades. The new carriers will carry 30 fighter jets, and be armed with a variety of missiles.

India as a geopolitical pivot

Experts are also paying close attention to the Indian Navy. They say that India will be a pivotal nation in regional geopolitics, in the sense that it can give crucial support to either a U.S.-led or an anti-U.S. alliance.

India is planning to have three aircraft carriers within 10 years. It has signed a contract with Russia to take over a used aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, since the INS Viraat, a British-made aircraft carrier, is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2012. The INS Viraat is the flagship of the Indian Navy. The new carrier is expected to enter service in 2008 as the INS Vikramaditya, thus complementing the Viraat.

In 2005, the Indian Defense Ministry began building a 41,340-ton-class aircraft carrier, the first carrier to be built by India at the Cochin Shipyard in southern India. The shipyard plans to complete work on the Vikrant-class ship by 2012 so that it will be ready for active service. The 252-meter-long vessel will cruise at a maximum of 28 knots, and will have 20 jet fighters, 10 helicopters, and 1,600 troops. India will attach Russian-made MiG-29Ks and Indian-made LCA light fighters to the carrier.

South Korea: A new contender?

The South Korean Navy has recently commissioned a 14,000-ton-class large-deck transport ship as part of an acquisition project code-named Land Platform Experimental. Chinese experts categorize the ship - named Dokdo after Korea's easternmost island - as an aircraft carrier.

South Korea plans to build two additional Dokdo-class vessels by 2011. The LPX ships are capable of carrying 300 crew members and 700 troops and staff, plus seven helicopters, six tanks, three artillery guns, two hovercraft, and other vehicles. The ships will be used to support marine-landing operations.

Meanwhile, Navy officials say that Korea has no plans to build aircraft carriers any time soon, mainly because of budget constraints. The operation of carriers requires the Navy to own its own fighter jets and other aircraft assets, but the Navy cannot afford these given the current budget, they said. So an aircraft carrier plan is not included in the nation's 2020 defense-reform plan, they added.

Most South Korean experts in the field are opposed to acquiring aircraft carriers. They emphasize that the Navy should be equipped with more state-of-the-art subs.

"I agree that we need to purchase or build additional submarines, but I oppose any acquisition of aircraft carriers, due to the heavy costs, in contrast to the operational gains that would be achieved," said Lee Sang-hyun.

Meanwhile, Kang Young-oh, a retired Navy commodore and strategist who continues to be quite influential, argues that South Korea needs to operate at least three 40,000-ton-class aircraft carriers to more effectively counter various threats. Such carriers would be launching decks for 30-40 aircraft, including antisubmarine and early-warning planes, Kang said.

By Jin Dae-woong (davidpooh@heraldm.com)