[Open Forum] Are New Technologies Job Thieves or Welcome Innovations?

We live in a world where all sorts of things can be done with just a word or a gesture. At this rate, will AI and robots end up doing all the work? In fact, some say that by 2030, robots and artificial intelligence will begin replacing human job capabilities in earnest. The U.S. research firm Forrester says that around 2025, automation and robots will eliminate 16% of all jobs in the United States, or about 22.7 million jobs. Will that really happen?

Some also claim that “the emergence of online open courses will eliminate half of all professors,” and that “if big data replaces 80% of medical demand, doctors will disappear.” There seems to be no need for excessive concern. According to a 2015 McKinsey report covering 800 occupations in the United States, only 5% of those 800 occupations could be replaced by automation technology, while 4% of tasks requiring creativity and 29% of tasks requiring emotional recognition would be difficult to turn over to artificial intelligence. In other words, not all work will be replaced by AI.

People are always quick to worry about a new era, but the results have consistently been better than expected. Just as the many industries built by humanity before the age of artificial intelligence were ultimately created for human beings, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is not a threat meant to endanger humanity, but an innovation for people.

We have always been sensitive during periods of industrial revolution. A representative example is the Luddite movement. Fearing that machines would wipe out all human jobs, crowds began smashing them. Ironically, however, as machines advanced, people did not lose their jobs; instead, they had to work so much that controversies over overwork remain an issue even today.

Some may argue that the Internet of Things and AI are different from past innovations because they replace tasks related to computerization. But those concerns have already proven unfounded.

The typist was once regarded as a highly social occupation. That was because it was a job largely held by women. But with the development of computers and word-processing software, the occupation of typist disappeared. Looking only at the fact that a job disappeared may seem quite frightening, but the development of computers and software gave rise not just to a few new jobs, but to entirely new industries.

There are also occupations that did not disappear and in fact increased in number. A well-known example is the introduction of ATMs in banking. People thought ATMs would eliminate bank teller jobs, but because installing ATMs reduced operating costs per branch, banks increased the number of branches, and as a result, the number of bank employees has continued to rise compared with the period before ATMs were introduced.

New technologies can reduce jobs, and they can also increase them. No one knows for sure. But innovation raises individual productivity, and as a result, income increases. When income rises, personal consumption expands in many areas, and as consumption grows, jobs producing consumer goods increase substantially. Total employment, then, rises.

Innovative technology has grown alongside human civilization. New technology is a means of improving quality of life and achieving greater goals; it is unlikely to harm humanity. On the contrary, as production has increased, jobs have become more diverse and more numerous. Technological innovation is truly something to be grateful for.

Hyunjun Shin, Intern Researcher, Center for Free Enterprise (CFE)

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Original title: [자유발언대] 신기술은 일자리 도둑인가, 고마운 혁신인가

Author: Hyun-jun Shin

Date: 2022-11-25

Source: https://www.cfe.org/bbs/bbsDetail.php?cid=free_opinion&pn=7&idx=25099